In 1944, the governments of the States met in the American Bretton woods and agreed on the principles of cooperation. But to trade, you needed a system that would fix the ratio of currencies for some time. Given that America suffered the least after the war, and it also had 3/4 of the world's gold reserves, the us proposals were accepted. The currencies of other countries should have done the same, but only after the economic recovery of these countries. Thus, the dollar became a single currency backed by gold. Gold is a single measure of value. The Americans then thought: "So let's replace gold with what we know how to do and create a system that will protect us. The only place where you can print a dollar is the us Federal reserve." And then the IMF appears. The IMF law States that no state can print its money more than what it has secured by the amount of the dollar in reserves. Americans began to print US dollars only as much as they needed, and to avoid inflation, they expanded the dollar zone around the world. This is where US economic assistance to Europe, Latin America, and Asia began. Inflationary money flowed to Europe. For three years, 12 billion dollars were transferred here free of charge, and 1.5 were given at low interest rates. Unfortunately, our country Kyrgyzstan is no exception. We must admit that in the future, quotes on the foreign exchange market of Kyrgyzstan will depend more on external factors, on the monetary policy of the fed, Russia, Kazakhstan and oil prices. "The double shock of slowing economic growth in Russia, the main trading partner, and lower oil prices is hurting the Central Asian region," said the Deputy Director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department. " Changes in exchange rates, such as the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the ruble, are exacerbating the problem. The impact of lower oil prices and a downturn in economic activity in Russia is reinforced by a slowdown in domestic production. Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic temporarily increase budget expenditures to boost domestic demand, Why is it necessary to carry out structural reforms? Throughout the region, current economic conditions in Central Asia are proving difficult for banks, as financial systems are under pressure from various sources. Higher exchange rates increase credit and insolvency risks, especially due to dollarization of banking systems and loans in foreign currency. And slowing economic growth in the region increases credit risks, especially in countries with weak Bank management systems. Strong structural reforms will be vital for the region's medium-term prospects. Policy makers should step up their efforts to strengthen the business environment, improve governance, and diversify the economy to reduce their dependence on commodity exports and remittances.
The IMF's goal of international financial stability remains the same. But the threat to this stability now comes not from developing countries, but from developed countries – from the main donors to the IMF. The situation has changed completely. Now developing countries have accumulated such reserves of their own reserve currencies that they are ready to become donors themselves. And they want it. After all, their foreign exchange reserves exceeded those of the IMF. Today's IMF reserves are only $ 400 billion. Even Russia's reserves are larger. And China's reserves are many times larger. These are not just numbers. China's purely domestic and perhaps even undisclosed decision on which currency to store its reserves in is now of much more medium-term significance for the Euro/dollar pair than the entire IMF policy. Therefore, it is clear that the decision of the IMF member countries to double the IMF's capital to $ 750 billion looks quite logical. The problems of rich countries are much more expensive. But where to get the money? Developed countries do not want to give them, this is very difficult when the problem of public debt worsens. The reform is delayed and delayed. Developing countries are ready to give them in return for an increase in votes in the IMF. Technically, it looks simple. First, increasing the quotas of developing countries. Second, the expansion of the IMF's reserve currencies. In General, this looks like a small coup within the IMF. And this is not someone's evil will, but a reflection of new world realities. Rich countries have nothing to object to, but they are trying in every possible way not to lose control over decisions in the IMF. They are reluctant to increase the quotas of developing countries, but not yet to change the basket of reserve currencies. In addition, IMF bonds were invented, which are placed between member countries. In the hope that developing countries will buy them and at least partially solve the problem of replenishing IMF reserves. But developing countries are not eager to solve the problems of IMF capitalization without adequately increasing their influence on the organization. Russia, instead of purchasing IMF bonds, came up with the idea of creating its own "Eurasian mini-IMF" of 10 billion dollars (by the way, it was supposed to provide loans to Belarus from it). According to the IMF's decisions taken today, developed economies have lost about 5% of quotas and votes in favor of developing countries over the past 5 years. Russia, of course, supports the position of developing countries on this holiday, but reluctantly. After all, its share-not by someone's evil will, but according to the IMF's formulas for calculating the financial influence of countries in the world — is not growing, but is decreasing. Since 2006, the share of China in quotas has grown by 2 times, India and Brazil-by one and a half. But the share of Russia is falling. The price of the IMF's return to big politics will clearly be the transfer of control over it to developing countries, or at least the establishment of their parity with developed countries. Of course, the developed countries would not refuse to get another tool for pumping resources from developing countries to themselves. But the fact is that there are no clear criteria for granting loans to developed countries. They, in fact, can not be — how to justify why it is necessary to issue loans to the richest countries of the world, and not the poorest? This is absurd… And another simple argument – why should countries issuing reserve currencies take loans in these currencies in an interstate organization? They may just as well take out such loans from their own Central banks with macroeconomic effects. Which, for example, the US does (this was the point of QE-2). And strong developing countries do not need IMF loans. It is tempting to turn the IMF into an instrument of pressure on developed countries, but it is clear that this will not work in the end.these developed countries are not fools to voluntarily give up such control. The IMF is not necessary, but you can not leave it, otherwise you will not be able to influence it, and you will be pressured through it. As a result, developing countries will take an active position and demand reform of the IMF's management, while developed countries will retreat, weakly and implicitly resisting. Of course, to retreat to some limit. Today, they have 55.3% of the votes in the IMF. In principle, they have almost nowhere to retreat. This is a game for another 5 years, no more.
I propose to create a delegation offering to conclude bilateral or multilateral agreements on customs, price, credit and commodity issues among the member States of the Eurasian Union at the first stage. Such an idea on the financial and economic level and freedom from the us dollar, dependence on the us Federal Reserve System, is now more relevant than ever.